S&P500 E-mini Levels For 3/14/2025

$ES_F Analysis & Game Plan

Big Picture: Bias is Bearish, Market Has Broken The Upward Channel Support From October 2023 Low, $VIX 20-25 (Mild Volatility)

• Today´s Pivot is 5553

NOTE: Today I will continue to trade the ES March contract, but I will switch this weekend and re-do all my levels for the ES June contract (ESM2025). Therefore, my Sunday Post will reflect this change and on Monday I will be trading the June contract.

The opening price was rejected at the start of yesterday’s trading session. Once the 5590 level was broken—an essential requirement for downside movement according to the plan—the ES market sold off to the first downside target at the 5560 level. This zone was quickly defended, leading to a rebound back to the opening level. However, the rejection at this zone signaled further weakness, and the market broke below the 5590 level once again. This breakdown presented a strong shorting opportunity, which I capitalized on once my setup was confirmed. The market sold off sharply, achieving nearly all downside targets. The final downside target for the day was missed by just a few points, as the market bottomed at 5509. As per the plan, the Sellers needed to keep the market below the daily Pivot of 5610 for the Bearish scenario to play out, and they successfully did so. Here’s what I had outlined for the downside scenario:

“For the Sellers to maintain control, they must defend the 5632 - 5621 area and keep the market below today’s Pivot of 5610. A break below the 5590 level could trigger further downside, with key targets at: Targets 1: 5560 level, 5542 level, 5525 level, and the 5500 level.”

Following the sell-off, the market rebounded to the 5560 level, where it faced rejection, leading to another move lower and eventually settling around the 5525 level. The Bearish Imbalance phase remains intact, and Bearish sentiment continues to dominate the market.

During the OVN session, the ES market initially rallied and broke above today’s Pivot of 5553. The market attempted to push toward the 5577 level but lacked momentum, leading to a sell-off back to the daily Pivot, which was successfully defended. Following this, the market rebounded once again to the 5577 level. See the hourly chart below. Also, note that there are Bullish divergences from the technical indicators on the 1-Hour/4-Hour charts and on the medium time frames.

Key Levels to Watch:

1. Upside Scenario:

   For the Buyers to push the market higher, they must defend the 5542 level and today’s Pivot of 5553. Once the 5577 level is cleared, the upside targets are:

   Targets 1:

   5590 level, 5604 level, 5621 - 5632 area, 5646 level and the 5674 level (prior week low).

   (Note that all of these levels serve as strong resistance zones and potential turning points)

2. Downside Scenario:

   For the Sellers to maintain control, they must break below today´s Pivot of 5553 and the 5542 level. The key downside targets are:

   Targets 1:

   5525 level, 5500 (September low), 5489 level and the 5475 level.

   (Note that all of these levels serve as strong support zones and potential turning points)