Sunday Post - Recap & Week Ahead 3/30/2025

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Throughout the week, US stock indexes experienced increased volatility, with early gains fading into broad declines ranging from approximately 1% to nearly 3%. The S&P 500 posted its fifth negative week in the past six, reflecting ongoing market uncertainty. Meanwhile, gold extended its strong YTD rally, rising for a fourth consecutive week. The precious metal briefly surpassed the $3,100-per-ounce level for the first time, with Friday's trading levels hovering around $3,116—representing a 17% gain YTD.

The ES market remains in a well-defined downward channel originating from its February high as shown in the chart below. This week, the market gapped up and attempted to rally toward a key resistance level, which was identified on the daily ES chart about two weeks ago. However, this area was firmly rejected, leading to a sell-off that brought prices back toward the recent lows, which aligns closely with the September 2024 lows. The key question now is whether these September support levels will hold or if further downside is imminent. From an Elliott Wave perspective, the current structure suggests that the market may be completing a fifth wave down in an ongoing correction from its December all-time high. If this wave count holds, a potential reversal or relief rally could be on the horizon, but confirmation will depend on price action.

As usual, I will do a brief recap of this week´s market action, followed by an analysis of the general markets and the various sectors, and conclude with an outlook for the upcoming week.

• ◼ Recap:

  The Bullish scenario outlined in the prior Sunday Post played out well during the first two days of the week. The ES market started the week with a gap-up, breaking above the key resistance level necessary for further upside, as detailed in the initial plan. The market then rallied, nearly reaching all designated upside targets. However, by Wednesday, Bullish momentum stalled, and the market failed to push higher. Instead, a sharp sell-off occurred, bringing prices to the lower boundary of a 4-Day Balance area. Over the next session, price action remained highly volatile around this key support zone, with multiple failed breakdown attempts. Eventually, the market decisively broke below the Balance area, triggering an extended decline that pushed prices closer to the March 13 lows. With this breakdown, the market has now entered a Bearish Imbalance phase, indicating increased downside risk.

• ◼ General Markets and Sectors:

  Check out the updated Charts Page which goes with this section.

  The S&P 500 initially gapped up to the daily 200 MA (5762 resistance level), which was rejected leading to a selloff that broke the 5638 support (now resistance). Next support is at a long-term support trendline or the 5451 level.

  The NDX/Nasdaq initially gapped up moving inside the upward channel from the January 2023 low but was rejected at the daily 200 MA. This resulted in a selloff that broke the 19470 support (now resistance). This market is now in a downward channel from the February high and next supports are 18925 & 18438 (September low).

  The Dow Jones initially gapped up and moved to the 42700 resistance, which was rejected. The market then sold off breaking below the daily 200 MA and the 41915 support (now resistance). This market is also in a downward channel from the January high and next supports are 41198 & 40000 (September low).

  Small Caps (IWM) initially gapped up but failed and sold off back down to the 200-support level. It remains in a downward channel from the November high. Note that the daily 50 MA has crossed below the 200 MA.

  The FFTY index gapped up to the daily 200 MA which was rejected. The market then sold off and is getting closer to the upward channel support from the October 2023 low.

  The $VIX reversed back higher, moving above the 20 level and has become Bullish again.

  Crude Oil broke above the downward channel resistance from the March 2022 high and moved higher to the declining daily 50 MA.

  Gold defended the 3000 support and rallied higher to the upward channel resistance from the February 2024 low. It made another new all-time record high and is very Bullish.

  The US 10-Year yield continues to consolidate between the 4.21% support/daily 200 MA and the 4.40% resistance.

  The USDJPY moved higher to the 152-resistance area, which aligns with the daily 200 MA/50 MA. This area was rejected and the market sold off to the 150 - 148.50 support area. Note the daily 50 MA has crossed below the 200 MA.

  Bitcoin continues to consolidate around the daily 200 MA, between the 80425 support and the 87300 resistance. It remains inside the upward channel from the October 2023 low, but it is in a downtrend from its all-time high.

  Semis, SOX broke the upward channel support from the October 2022 low and moved to the recent low. Note that this area coincides with the April and August 2024 lows.

  Consumer Disc, XLY initially gapped up to the daily 200 MA which was rejected. This resulted in a selloff toward the recent lows, which align with the October low. It remains in the gradual upward channel from the December 2022 low.

  The Retail sector, XRT initially gapped up to the 70.60 resistance but was rejected. This resulted in a selloff toward the January 2024 low. Note the daily 50 MA has crossed below the 200 MA.

  The Tech sector, XLK also gapped up which failed, leading to a selloff toward the September lows. Note the daily 50 MA is crossing below the 200 MA.

  Transports, IYT gapped up to the uptrend line from the October 2023 low but got rejected, leading to a selloff to the recent lows. It remains in the upward channel from the October 2022 low.

  Financials sector, XLF moved higher to the daily 50 MA and a long-term resistance trendline. This area was rejected leading to a selloff.

  The Materials sector, XLB continues to consolidate around the upward channel support from the October 2022 low, which is being defended for now.

  Industrials, XLI got rejected at the daily 50 MA and sold off breaking below the 200 MA. It remains in an upward channel from the March 2020 low.

  The Health sector, XLV got rejected at the daily 200 MA and sold off breaking below the 50 MA. This market has been rangebound since late January.

  Consumer Staples, XLP rallied higher moving above the daily 200 MA/50 MA. It remains in an upward channel from the October 2023 low.

  Utilities, XLU has been rangebound since January and the daily 200 MA is being defended. It remains in the upward channel from the October 2023 low.

  The Energy sector, XLE briefly moved above the YTD high, which was rejected. Note that this market has been rangebound for over two years (shaded area).

• ◼ YEAR-TO-DATE RETURN:

  DJIA Dow Jones -1.9%

  SPX S&P 500 -4.8%

  IXIC Nasdaq -10.1%

  XLE U.S. Energy Sector: +8.7%

  XLV U.S. Health Care Sector: +5.5%

  XLU U.S. Utilities Sector: +3.8%

  XLP U.S. Consumer Staples Sector: +2.8%

  XLF U.S. Financial Sector: +2.2%

  XLB U.S. Materials Sector: +1.6%

  XLI U.S. Industrials Sector: -0.9%

  IYT Dow Jones Transports: -5.5%

  XLK U.S. Technology Sector: -11.1%

  XLY U.S. Consumer Disc Sector: -11.9%

  XRT U.S. Retail Industry: -13.7%

  SOX Semiconductor Index: -14.7%

• ◼ Week of 3/24/2025:

  Click link for complete Economic Calendar.

  United States - Jobs report and ISM PMIs.

  China - official and Caixin PMIs.

  Japan - Tankan business survey.

  Eurozone - preliminary inflation figures and PMIs for Europe's largest economies.

  Germany - factory orders.

  Reserve Bank of Australia - interest rates.

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