S&P500 E-mini Levels For 7/7/2025

$ES_F Analysis & Game Plan

• PLEASE SEE INTRO POST AND READ DISCLAIMER & INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY SECTIONS

Big Picture: Bias is Bullish, Market In Upward Channel From April 2025 Lows, $VIX Below 20 (complacency)

• Today´s Pivot is 6309

The ES market remains in a Bullish Imbalance phase, reaffirming the risk-on sentiment outlined in the Sunday Post. Seasonally, July has historically been one of the strongest months for equities, particularly during the first half. This tendency adds tailwinds to the current rally, which has seen the S&P 500 extend its upward momentum into new highs. See the graph below.

However, underlying caution signals are starting to emerge. Last week, I pointed out the Bearish divergences from the technical indicators in my newsletter. Since then, market breadth has also reached extreme levels, with the percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their daily 50 MA climbing to zones that have historically coincided with market pullbacks. Additionally, the Fear & Greed Index has moved into the extreme greed territory, a zone that has often preceded short-term pullbacks.

While the broader trend remains Bullish, these overbought conditions suggest an increased probability of near-term consolidation or volatility as the market digests recent gains. One should remain mindful of these mixed signals even as seasonal strength continues to support the broader Bullish backdrop.

• Last week, the ES market broke above the previous week’s high early on—a key trigger for the Bullish scenario outlined in the previous Sunday Post. After some consolidation, momentum accelerated, pushing the ES to a new all-time high. All upside targets for the week were achieved, fully in line with the Sunday Post analysis. These timely, data-driven insights continue to provide actionable trade setups for both day and swing traders. Don't miss the next move — become a Paid Subscriber now for precise, actionable trade plans:

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